Obama and Afghanistan: Deciding vs. Deliberating

“The strongest of all warriors are these two: Time and Patience.”
– Leo Tolstoy

“I’m the decider,” former President George Bush famously uttered in April of 2006. “I decide what is best. And what’s best is for Don Rumsfeld to remain as the Secretary of Defense.” Bush’s use of the term “decider” captures the essence of his Administration’s approach to governing: making “right decisions” as opposed to making decisions the right way. And, as has been ably chronicled by Bob Woodward and numerous others, Bush’s “right decisions” were often Texas-cowboy-shoot-from-the-hip-and-ask-questions-later-gut-feelings-of-rightness decisions.

How refreshing it has been, then, to see President Obama engage in a deeply deliberative process over whether to commit more U.S. troops to the war in Afghanistan. Though accused of “dithering” over war strategy by former Vice-President Dick Cheney, Obama’s expected decision to commit 30,000 more troops to the war will actually bring him more into line with conservatives than the rank-and-file of his own party. But the thoroughness and transparency of Obama’s process will lay the foundation for support in Congress, support that will be essential given the increasing unpopularity of the war.

President Obama’s approach exemplifies key “design principles” that research has revealed to be fundamental to effective executive decision-making:

Gather the right minds around the table. Decision-making is a process of converting inputs (knowledge, insight, potential support) into outputs (commitments and plans of action). As with all processes, the old maxim that “garbage in equals garbage out” very much applies to decision-making. You can’t hope to get the right outcomes if you don’t start with the right inputs. That’s why gathering the right minds around the table is key. These minds must have the requisite range of expertise (knowledge of Afghan regional politics, counter-insurgency strategy, etc), range of opinion (both for and against committing more troops), as well as a range of cognitive orientation — creative minds and practical minds, analytical and values-driven, structured and flexible. As you decide whom to have at your decision-making table, then, keep in mind Machiavelli’s admonition that, “The first opinion which one forms of a [leader] is by observing the men he has around him; and when they are capable and faithful he may always be considered wise.”

Decide how you will decide. When the stakes are high, it’s all too easy for decision-making to degenerate into positional bickering. When this happens, opportunities to reframe the problem, generate creative alternatives, and forge consensus agreements are lost. The result is either lowest-common-denominator comprises or deadlock. Effective executives avoid this by adopting structured approaches that parse decision-making into a set of distinct phases, starting with defining the problem, and proceeding through establishing criteria for evaluating potential outcomes, generating and testing alternatives, and finally reaching closure. The virtue of the phased approach is that it moves people through digestible experiences of education and adjustment, blunting the reflexive resort to position-taking, and avoiding premature convergence on an “obvious” solution.

Take care to define desired outcomes early (and don’t lose sight of them). This is a corollary to the previous principle. One well-documented decision-trap is the tendency for the scope of decision-making either to expand dangerously (this is known as mission creep) or to get watered down (laboring mightily and giving birth to a mouse). The best antidote to scope drift is early definition of, and commitment to, a statement of desired outcomes. Is the goal in Afghanistan to defeat the Taliban, and if so, over what time frame? Is it building civil society with the Afghan people? Is it buttressing stability in Pakistan? Is it getting U.S. troops home as quickly as possible? The resulting mission statement, along with supporting criteria for rigorously evaluating potential outcomes, provides an essential anchor for the hard work of option generation and deliberation.

Rest the ladder of inference on a firm foundation. The most dangerous things in the world are outdated assumptions. Assumptions, after all, are the foundation upon which the ladder of logical inference rests in decision-making. If “A” is true, “B” and “C” follow. But what if “A” is not true? What if “A” was once true, but no longer holds? For example, is Al Qaeda still the primary threat to U.S. interests in the region? It’s essential to explicitly surface the fundamental assumptions that the people around the table are making, and to test their soundness with deep analysis. Done well, the result is a shared foundation of facts and hypotheses on which the group will build their decision-edifice.

Demand diversity of viewpoints. In Why Great Leaders Don’t Take Yes for an Answer, Michael Roberto persuasively argues that leaders must actively foment disagreement to get good decisions. Too much agreement, too early in the process, is as dangerous as too little agreement later on. Why? Because it raises the specter that decision-makers have fallen prey to groupthink, the tendency for “conventional wisdom” to harden too quickly and crowd out divergent opinions. If leaders don’t get enough disagreement naturally, Roberto suggests, then they should demand it by elevating the options of thoughtful minority viewpoints, or appointing a devil’s advocate (Vice President Biden appears to have played this role in arguing for a more limited focus in the region) or engaging in scenario generating exercises or setting up a “red team” and a “blue team” to argue different viewpoints.

Know when and how to bring the process to closure. Finally, effective leaders know when and how to drive the process to closure and commitment. “Analysis paralysis” is an ever-present danger when potential outcomes are unpalatable. Deliberation can give way to dithering when the stakes are high and interests are powerful. So decision-makers like Obama have to set deadlines and other action-forcing events to bring the process to a conclusion. They must demand that everyone around the table support the outcome, even if there is not full consensus that it is the right way to go.

These principles of effective executive decision-making will help you to avoid the more obvious decision-traps and reach better conclusions. In the case of President Obama’s deliberations on Afghanistan, his careful attention to the design of the decision process should contribute to saving lives and increasing our security.

Michael Watkins is the author of many books, including Shaping the Game: The New Leader’s Guide to Effective Negotiating and Your Next Move: The Leader’s Guide to Navigating Major Career Transitions

Oprah Winfrey and Your Leadership Brand

All leaders have a brand. Whether that term is used or not, leaders have an identifiable persona that is a reflection of what they do and how others perceive them. I call this the leadership brand.

When it comes to cultivating a leadership brand, look no further than Oprah Winfrey, who recently announced that she would be ending her popular talk show in 2011. In a perceptive analysis, New York Times media columnist David Carr suggests that Winfrey’s brand and the key to her longevity is a combination of things she didn’t do as well as things that she did do. On the “don’t do side,” she did not over-merchandize nor take her company public; she kept control of her products and thereby her image, unlike Martha Stewart. On the “do side,” she always stayed true to herself. As she told her business partner Gayle King years ago, “I don’t know what the future holds but I know who holds it.”

The lessons of Oprah’s brand are relevant to any leader. First and foremost, understand that brand is what you develop as well as what others perceive. The balance between reality and perception can be shaky if you are not careful, but as we have seen from Oprah, not impossible.

Here are some lessons for cultivating your own positive leadership brand.

Practice what you preach. It’s easy to say, but when the going gets tough, how many supposed leaders disappear into the shadows? Those who lead by example are willing to make tough decisions and be accountable for the consequences. They are also willing to lend a hand to colleagues and direct reports. These are go-to people who work extra hard when necessary. Nothing is stronger than seeing the boss do heavy lifting alongside an employee during crunch time.

Act on principle. This applies to work, where principles determine the quality and attention you deliver, as well as to values, where principles determine behavior. Employees who see their bosses standing up for the right way of doing things in the face of competition (from inside and outside the organization) will believe and follow. For example, make certain that employees are compensated (either monetarily or in time off) for overtime and are receiving recognition for jobs well done.

Insist on integrity. When it comes to a leadership brand, integrity is the lever one uses to get things done the right way. That means treating people with respect, regardless of their positions. Act for the benefit of the organization first and yourself second. Do things that honor the work you do as well as the people who work for you. Talking about integrity is one thing; insisting that you and your colleagues abide by is what matters.

Integrity is not reserved for big corporate dealings; it can focus on small things. For example, in tough times, make the choice to fly economy class rather than business class.

Some who read this might be thinking, poppycock! As a leader my job is to lead others not worry about my image. True, but not entirely. Your job as a leader depends upon getting others to follow your lead; they must trust you. Trust is essential to leadership, and a brand — how people perceive you — is critical to encouraging followership.

And there’s one final point. Leaders make mistakes. A strong brand, just as a strong sense of self, can aid in a comeback. People will readily forgive a misstep if they believe your intentions were good. This applies not only to mistakes in business judgment but mistakes about people too. If you have done well, but make a bad call about a product or process, or even if you insult a colleague, a strong brand will give you a safety net. As long as you act quickly and make amends, you can restore trust because you have created a legacy of good will.

In short, your brand is a reflection of your credibility. Develop it wisely and nurture it carefully and it will help you create strong bonds of trust with your followers. Any doubt, just ask Oprah.

Product Roadshow 2009

Atlantic Global would like to thank the all visitors and participants who attended the 2009 Atlantic Global Product Road Show. The latest features of the new product upgrade were showcased, and visitors got an advanced preview of the new mobile browser application that’s due for release shortly.

Atlantic Global OnDemand Release 3.1

Atlantic Global are pleased to announce the release of Atlantic Global OnDemand v3.1. The latest version sees improvements to the software, including the following:
• New Reporting Improvements
• Improved Resource Availability Search
• Improved Cost & Charge Rates
• Improvements to Project Profiling
• New ‘Quick Start Wizard’ (Timesheet Configuration Guide)
Use the hyperlinks above to access additional details. Alternatively, download a full guide here:
Atlantic [...]

Time to Start Planning your Binary Day Parties

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Research finds leadership skills inadequate to meet current and future demand

New research from the Center for Creative Leadership (CCL) which surveyed 2,200 leaders from 15 organizations, in three countries between 2006 and 2008 produced some interesting findings. The research project was designed to answer the following questions: What leadership skills and perspectives are critical for success now and in the future? How strong are current leaders [...]

PPM Quadrants

I’ve discussed this before but never put out a diagram that shows the four quadrants that define the migration from Project Management to Project Portfolio Management. Here’s the diagram:



Do Your IT Projects Produce?

Situation: You deal with highly repeatable processes and new components in most project cycles.RPlan is a project management tool which is very popular in automotive manufacturing, with clients such as GM, Daimler, VW, AUDI, Porsche, BMW, Renault, Getrag-Ford, Airbus, Rolls-Royce and more. The tool…

What It Takes to Lead Now

A majority of managers just don’t understand what it means to be a leader.

That’s a conclusion that I draw from a recent global survey by McKinsey and Company about what it takes to manage corporate performance. Only 48% of managers surveyed believed that they need to inspire and only 46% believed it was their responsibility to provide direction during this crisis. The numbers for inspiration and direction actually drop to 45% and 39% respectively when considered as behaviors for how to manage post-crisis.

More troubling, only 30% of managers felt that they needed to motivate their employees during the crisis and just 23% did post-crisis. The need for accountability ranked low too, just 23% for crisis and only 18% post-crisis. Innovation also ranked low, just 33% believed it was necessary now, but some 46% did believe it was necessary post-crisis.

If a majority of managers do not feel that inspiration and direction are necessary for managing corporate performance, and that motivation and accountability are not essential, then our companies are in far worse shape than imagined.

The study does not measure what I believe most managers think their jobs are: getting things done. But execution without adequate leadership is short-sighted. It will carry a company through a quarter or a year, but it will not provide a foundation for what organizations really need to do, and that is to grow. Leadership requires foresight as well as the ability to execute. Foresight points you in the right direction so that your execution can serve customer needs now and lay the foundation for continued service.

Therefore, it is necessary to reframe what inspiration and direction means.

Inspiration, as McKinsey describes it, falls under “leadership… so that leaders inspire others and shape their actions.” The word inspiration may confuse, even overwhelm, most managers because they may feel they need to orate like Winston Churchill or lead like Colin Powell. No, inspiration is rooted in personal example. Managers can inspire by putting employees in position to succeed and then by helping them get the work done right in a timely fashion. More importantly, good managers connect with their employees individually to support, coach, and challenge them to succeed. That all adds up to creating a more inspired workplace.

Direction, as the McKinsey survey sees it, is “capacity to articulate where company is heading… and to align people properly.” Few managers I know would disagree with that concept, but many will think it is senior management’s job, not theirs. It’s too bad, because alignment (getting people to pull together for the same goals) actually happens on the front lines. It is up to managers to ensure that people understand what is expected of them and how they must execute. That requires good direction.

There is one company seeking to rethink what it means to lead. According to the Wall Street Journal, GE has revised the curriculum at Crotonville, its famed management development center, to learn from mistakes it made in the current recession. There is an emphasis on teaching executives to focus on humility and listening as well as encouraging them “to challenge assumptions, think more globally,” and be “more accountable.” Listening, humility, and accountability are good first steps to inspiration; and assumption busting and global thinking may help with setting better direction.

Leadership is essential to improvement. While more than two-thirds of Americans, according to the National Leadership Index for 2009 published by the Harvard Kennedy School, believe “we have a leadership crisis,” nearly nine in ten (87%) believe that “problems we face today can be solved through effective leadership.”

Clearly leaders have their work cut out for them.

Where Great Ideas Come From…

The notion of “a great idea” can mean different things to different people. A “great idea” might mean that we figured out a new technique to do a lot less work in order to get the same things done. Or, a “great idea” might mean that we have fundamentally changed what we think we are doing in the first place. A “great idea” might also have zero direct impact… Read the whole piece here…

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